Canada, India Close to Resuming Uranium Trade After Diplomatic Freeze

Canada is preparing to unveil a multibillion-dollar uranium export agreement with India, marking the strongest sign yet that the two countries are rebuilding ties after a two-year diplomatic freeze.

Two people familiar with the negotiations revealed that the deal, valued at roughly US$2.8 billion, would run for up to a decade and position Canadian producer Cameco (TSX:CCO,NYSE:CCJ) as a long-term supplier to India’s expanding nuclear power sector.

The final terms are still being refined, the sources cautioned, but the agreement is expected to be announced in the coming days.

The deal, if it pushes through, would form part of the formal attempt of both parties to revive economic cooperation after a period of political strain.

This culminated last weekend in a decision by Prime Minister Mark Carney and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi to restart long-stalled trade talks. The former has also accepted the latter’s invitation to visit India in 2026.

Both leaders signaled their intention to pursue a comprehensive economic partnership as they seek alternatives to increasingly unpredictable US trade policy.

According to two sources, the new agreement will not be a renewal but an entirely separate, larger commitment.

The pending export deal would go well beyond the countries’ previous uranium pact: a five-year, roughly US$350-million arrangement signed in 2015 that allowed India to buy Cameco uranium for civilian nuclear use.

In a recent press release, India’s Ministry of External Affairs also noted that “both sides reaffirmed their longstanding civil nuclear cooperation and noted the ongoing discussions on expanding collaboration, including through long-term uranium supply arrangements.”

India’s interest reflects its growing nuclear-power ambitions. The country operates about 25 reactors—many based on the Canadian-designed CANDU system—with six more under construction.

As electricity demand climbs and the government pushes to reduce carbon emissions, securing reliable uranium supplies has become a strategic priority for New Delhi. Expanded cooperation with Canada could also extend into small modular reactors, an area Ottawa has been promoting as part of its clean energy strategy and transition.

For Canada, the deal furthers its goals of developing a stable domestic nuclear supply. The country is the world’s second-largest producer of uranium, responsible for about 13 percent of global output, and holds some of the highest-grade deposits in the world.

Nearly 85 percent of Canadian uranium is exported primarily from mines in northern Saskatchewan. The industry generates around US$800 million in annual economic activity and employs more than 2,000 people, including many Indigenous and northern workers.

The diplomatic significance of the deal is equally notable. Relations between Canada and India plummeted in September 2023 after then-prime-minister Justin Trudeau accused New Delhi of involvement in the killing of Canadian Sikh activist Hardeep Singh Nijjar, an allegation India rejected.

The allegations led to trade talks being suspended, and political contact between the two countries sharply diminished.

While Canadian authorities continue to investigate the matter, Carney has signaled that he wants to move economic relations forward, particularly as he seeks to diversify exports away from the US under President Donald Trump.

Securities Disclosure: I, Giann Liguid, hold no direct investment interest in any company mentioned in this article.